USA Walnut Market- Trend Analysis & Forecast to 2030

USA walnut production reached 689.46 million tonnes in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of XX% from 2020 to 2030. As the world's second largest walnut producer, accounted for 26% share in global production in 2023. The U.S. holds significant price-setting power in the global walnut market due to its status as the largest exporter. In 2023, USA exported walnuts worth USD 924.76 million, with Germany, Japan, Turkey, and the UAE being the major importers.

Product/ Market Overview

The USA is one of the largest producers and exporters of walnuts globally, with California being the epicenter of production. The U.S. walnut industry is characterized by its advanced farming techniques, high-quality standards, and well-established processing and distribution networks. The domestic market for walnuts is strong, driven by the health and wellness trend, which has increased the popularity of walnuts as a nutritious snack and ingredient. Additionally, the U.S. is a significant exporter of walnuts, with key markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The market has experienced steady growth over the past decade, supported by rising global demand and innovative product developments. However, the industry faces challenges such as fluctuating prices, environmental concerns, and competition from other walnut-producing countries. Looking ahead, the U.S. walnut market is expected to continue expanding, driven by both domestic consumption and growing international demand.

Importance of USA in Global Walnut Supply Chain

The USA plays a critical role in the global walnut supply chain, particularly due to its production capacity and quality standards. As the second-largest producer and the largest exporter of walnuts, the U.S. significantly influences global supply and pricing. Its ability to meet both domestic and international demand makes it a key player in stabilizing the global walnut market, especially during periods of supply shortages in other regions.

USA Walnut Production & Demand Trend

The U.S. walnut production has shown a consistent upward trend, driven by increased acreage and improved farming practices. California, which accounts for nearly all U.S. walnut production, benefits from its ideal growing conditions. Demand for U.S. walnuts is strong both domestically and internationally, with a growing preference for healthy snacks and the increasing use of walnuts in various food products. The trend indicates continued growth in production to meet rising demand.

USA Walnut Market Growth Factors

Several factors contribute to the growth of the U.S. walnut market. The rising awareness of the health benefits of walnuts, rich in omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidants, and other nutrients, is a primary driver. This has led to increased consumption of walnuts as snacks, ingredients in meals, and in the food processing industry. Additionally, technological advancements in farming and processing have improved yield and quality, making U.S. walnuts more competitive in the global market. Government support through subsidies and research funding has also played a role in the sector's growth. Moreover, the expanding global demand, particularly from Asia and Europe, where walnuts are increasingly used in culinary applications, has further bolstered the market. The development of new walnut-based products, such as walnut oil and walnut-based snacks, has opened up new revenue streams and attracted health-conscious consumers. Lastly, the growth of the organic walnut segment, driven by consumer preference for organic and sustainably produced foods, is contributing to the overall market expansion.

USA Walnut Market Restraints & Challenges

The U.S. walnut market faces several challenges that could impact its growth. Environmental concerns, such as water scarcity in California and the effects of climate change, pose significant risks to walnut production. The industry also faces stiff competition from other major walnut-producing countries like China and Chile, which offer walnuts at competitive prices. Additionally, fluctuations in global trade dynamics, including tariffs and trade restrictions, can affect the profitability of U.S. walnut exports. The high cost of production, including labor and compliance with stringent agricultural regulations, further adds to the challenges faced by U.S. walnut producers.

USA Walnut Supply/ Value Chain Bottlenecks/ Challenges

The walnut supply chain in the U.S. is well-developed but faces certain bottlenecks that could impede efficiency. One of the primary challenges is the dependency on a single region—California—for nearly all walnut production, making the supply chain vulnerable to regional climate events like droughts and wildfires. The cost and availability of labor are also significant concerns, as the agricultural sector faces increasing labor shortages and rising wages. Transportation and logistics, particularly for exports, are further complicated by high shipping costs and the need for specialized storage and packaging to maintain walnut quality during transit. Additionally, the industry must navigate complex regulatory requirements related to food safety and environmental protection, which can slow down the supply chain and increase operational costs.

Price Setting Power of USA in Global Walnut Value Chain

The U.S. holds significant price-setting power in the global walnut market due to its status as the largest exporter. The quality and consistency of U.S. walnuts allow it to command premium prices in international markets. However, this price-setting power is moderated by competition from other walnut-producing countries, which can influence global prices through supply variations and pricing strategies.

USA export unit price per kg for in shell walnut stood at USD 3.89 while shelled walnut prices at USD 4.27 per kg in 2023.

Walnut End-use Industries

Walnuts in the U.S. are primarily used in the food and beverage industry, where they are consumed as snacks, incorporated into baked goods, cereals, and salads, and used in confectionery products. The health food sector also drives demand for walnuts, with their use in supplements and health-focused products like walnut oil. Additionally, walnut shells find applications in the manufacturing of abrasives, cosmetics, and even as a biodegradable filler in certain industries.

USA Walnut Trade (Export & Import) Trend

The U.S. is a major player in the global walnut trade, with a strong export market. Key export destinations include Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, where U.S. walnuts are valued for their quality and consistency. The trend shows a steady increase in walnut exports, driven by growing global demand and the U.S.’s ability to supply large volumes. Imports of walnuts into the U.S. are minimal, mainly supplementing domestic supply during off-seasons or for specific market niches. The U.S. walnut trade balance remains heavily in favor of exports, contributing significantly to the country's agricultural export revenue.

USA Walnut Market Competitive Analysis

The U.S. walnut market is highly competitive, dominated by large-scale producers and processors who leverage advanced technology and extensive distribution networks. Companies compete on factors such as product quality, pricing, and market reach. The market also sees competition from smaller, niche producers who focus on organic or specialty walnut products. International competition, particularly from China and Chile, adds to the competitive landscape, requiring U.S. producers to maintain high standards and innovation.

List of Key Companies (Suppliers/ Exporters),

■ Diamond Foods, LLC
■ California Walnut Company
■ Mariani Nut Company
■ Poindexter Nut Company
■ Golden State Nut Company
■ Morada Produce Company
■ Grower Direct Nut Co., Inc.
■ GoldRiver Orchards, Inc.
■ Crain Walnut Shelling, Inc.
■ Andersen & Sons Shelling
■ Taylor Brothers Farms, Inc.
■ Carriere Family Farms
■ Treehouse California Almonds, LLC
■ Borges USA
■ Empire Nut Company, LLC

Future Outlook

The future of the U.S. walnut market appears positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by increasing domestic consumption and expanding international demand. The market is likely to benefit from ongoing investments in agricultural technology and sustainable farming practices. However, the industry must address environmental challenges and global competition to maintain its leading position in the global market. Innovations in walnut-based products and a focus on health-conscious consumers will be key to future growth.