India Wheat & Products Market- Trend Analysis & Forecasts

Market/ Product Overview

India’s wheat and wheat-products market is anchored by a long-standing role of wheat as the second-largest food grain after rice, with national production averaging 105–112 MMT during 2020–2024, driven by major producing states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana. The market value for primary wheat and its downstream products was estimated at US$ ** billion in 2024, expanding steadily due to a rise in per-capita consumption from 60.8 kg in 2015 to 67.5 kg in 2024, reflecting dietary shifts toward ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat wheat-based foods. The organized flour milling sector now processes more than ** MMT annually, compared with ** MMT a decade ago, supported by investments exceeding US$ ** million between 2018 and 2023 in modern roller mills, automation, and packaging infrastructure.

The market’s evolution is also shaped by inflationary pressure on food commodities, with the average wholesale wheat price rising from INR 1,950/quintal in 2020 to INR 2,350/quintal in 2024, largely influenced by MSP hikes and lower procurement during years of tight supply. The government’s procurement under the Food Corporation of India (FCI) averaged 26–34 MMT annually in the same period, significantly affecting open-market availability and retail price formation. Increasing urbanization, with urban population share rising to 36% in 2024, continues to boost demand for packaged atta, whole wheat flour variants, bakery mixes, vermicelli and durum wheat pasta, each growing at 6–9% annually. Rapid expansion of branded FMCG players has contributed to market premiumization, supported by the fact that branded atta alone grew from US$ ** billion in 2018 to nearly US$ ** billion in 2024.

Significance of India in Global Wheat & Products Supply Chain

India commands a prominent position in the global wheat economy, consistently ranking among the world’s top two producers, with its output representing 13–14% of global production, which stood at approximately 780 MMT in 2024. Despite holding only 3% of the world’s wheat export share, India has emerged as a strategic supplier during periods of global shortages, as seen in 2022 when the country exported over 7.2 MMT of wheat valued at US$ 2.12 billion due to supply gaps created by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India’s strategic wheat stock levels—averaging 18–25 MMT in FCI warehouses—offer a buffer for domestic food security and enable timely market interventions to stabilize prices, which is critical given India’s beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act exceed 810 million people.

Participating in global value-added wheat markets, India contributes nearly US$ ** billion through exports of flour, semolina, biscuits and ready-to-eat products, mostly shipped to the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. India’s wheat genetics research, with more than 400 improved varieties released since the Green Revolution, also influences global breeding programs, especially for heat tolerance and disease resistance. This global relevance is expected to grow as climate variability intensifies, and international markets increasingly rely on suppliers that can produce more than 100 MMT annually while maintaining stable domestic consumption.

India Wheat & Products Supply & Demand Trend

Domestic wheat supply in India is driven by acreage of 29–31 million hectares, with average yields rising from 3.2 tonnes/ha in 2015 to 3.6 tonnes/ha in 2024, although still below global leaders such as China, which averages 5.7 tonnes/ha. Annual production fluctuated between 100 and 112 MMT in the past five years due to climatic volatility, including heatwaves in 2022 that reduced output by nearly 3 MMT and triggered export restrictions to safeguard domestic availability. Procurement levels of 26–34 MMT annually feed the PDS system, while open-market availability typically ranges from 70–78 MMT, influencing wholesale and retail price trends.

On the demand side, India’s wheat consumption reached ** MMT in 2024, with food use accounting for **%, industrial processing for **%, and feed use for **%, reflecting a shift toward packaged and processed wheat products. Flour milling capacity has grown to over ** MMT, driven by demand from bakeries, quick-service restaurants (QSRs), and packaged food manufacturers. Demand for premium wheat-based bakery products is expanding at 8–10% CAGR, fueled by a rise in India’s bakery market size to US$ ** billion in 2024, of which biscuits and bread together account for over **%. Growing adoption of durum wheat for pasta production has expanded the domestic durum market to nearly ** MMT, supported by a doubling of pasta consumption over five years to ** thousand tonnes in 2024.

India Wheat & Products Market Segmentation

The India wheat and wheat-products market can be segmented by product type, end-use application, and distribution channel.

In product terms, whole wheat accounts for the largest segment, representing nearly ** MMT of annual consumption, driven by household demand for atta, which alone forms a US$ ** billion market in 2024. Branded packaged atta is growing rapidly at 7.5% CAGR, supported by improved packaging technologies and distribution expansion by FMCG majors. Maida and semolina collectively account for ** MMT, driven largely by the bakery, confectionery and noodle industries, which together contribute over US$ ** billion to India’s processed food economy.

Durum wheat represents a smaller but fast-growing segment of around ** MMT, aligned with rising pasta consumption which is increasing at 14% CAGR, supported by growing urban demand and restaurant penetration. Specialty flours such as multigrain atta, high-fiber atta and gluten-free variants form a niche segment valued at US$ ** million in 2024, expanding at 10% CAGR as health-conscious consumers seek functional products. In the value-added category, biscuits remain India’s largest wheat-based processed segment, with consumption exceeding ** MMT of flour and generating market revenue of US$ ** billion in 2024. Instant noodles and vermicelli, using more than ** MMT of maida annually, continue to witness double-digit growth driven by youth consumption trends.

By end-use, household consumption dominates with **% share, equivalent to nearly ** MMT, while industrial usage accounts for ** MMT, driven by bakery, QSRs, biscuit manufacturers and food-service operators. Distribution continues to shift toward organized retail and e-commerce, which now account for **% of total wheat-based product sales, compared with only **% in 2018, enabled by digital grocery platforms that collectively processed more than US$ ** billion in food sales in 2024.

India Wheat Milling Industry Trend

India’s wheat milling industry forms a vital part of the country’s food processing ecosystem, backed by annual wheat production of 110–112 million tonnes and an installed flour-milling capacity of around ** million tonnes per year, with nearly 65–70% of processed wheat handled by organized and semi-organized mills.

The sector is led by large branded players such as ITC (Aashirvaad Atta), Adani Wilmar (Fortune Chakki Fresh Atta), Patanjali Foods, Goodricke Group, and General Mills India, alongside major regional millers including Navneet Roller Flour Mills, Sharbati Agro, and Dinesh Flour Mills.

Demand for atta, maida, and semolina is growing at **% annually, supported by expanding bakery, pasta, noodle, and foodservice segments, while investments in modern roller mills, automation, and quality control are improving extraction efficiency, product consistency, and national distribution reach.

India Wheat & Products Trade (Export & Import) Trend

India’s wheat trade is characterized by episodic exports and tightly regulated imports. Exports reached a record ** MMT in 2022, valued at US$ ** billion, primarily serving markets like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Nepal and African nations. However, export bans in 2022 and curbs in 2023 reduced outbound volumes to below ** MMT in 2024, reflecting the government’s priority to stabilize domestic prices, which averaged INR 2,350/quintal in 2024. Wheat flour exports remained more stable at ** thousand tonnes annually, generating US$ ** million, supported by strong demand from the UAE, Oman, Bhutan and Maldives.

India’s wheat imports have been negligible for years, typically under ** thousand tonnes, as high import duties of **% protect domestic farmers. The only exception occurred in 2016–17 when a poor harvest prompted imports of ** MMT, temporarily reducing duties to 10%, although tariffs were reinstated when domestic output recovered above ** MMT. India’s trade balance for wheat and wheat products fluctuates between a surplus of US$ ** billion in good crop years and a near-neutral balance when exports are restricted. Trade in value-added wheat products is gaining significance, with branded biscuits and snacks exports reaching US$ ** million in 2024, supported by increased shipments to Africa and the Middle East.

Influence of India in Global Wheat & Products Price

India’s influence on global wheat prices is increasingly visible during years of supply tightness, despite not being a major long-term exporter. In 2022, India’s announcement to supply ** MMT to global markets helped temporarily ease global prices by nearly 6% on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), where prices had crossed US$ 450/tonne due to geopolitical disruptions. Conversely, India’s export ban in May 2022 pushed global prices up by 5–8%, reflecting the significance of a country producing more than 110 MMT annually. India’s domestic wholesale wheat prices increased from INR 1,975/quintal in 2019 to INR 2,750/quintal in 2024, while retail atta prices rose from INR 28/kg to INR 35/kg in the same period, tracking input cost inflation and supply tightness.

Import parity pricing shows that global wheat priced at US$ 320/tonne becomes uncompetitive in India after applying the **% import duty, taking landed prices to nearly INR 30/kg, above domestic wholesale levels. Export parity pricing historically favored Indian shipments when domestic prices remained near INR 2,000/quintal, helping Indian exporters supply at US$ 275–320/tonne during 2021–22. India’s price-setting power is therefore episodic rather than structural, but its policy decisions continue to influence global supply-demand balances, especially in Asia and Africa.

Future Outlook

The India wheat and wheat-products market is expected to reach US$ ** billion by 2032, expanding at a projected CAGR of **%, supported by rising population, increased urbanization and sustained demand from the bakery, QSR and packaged food sectors. Wheat production is forecast to stabilize between ** and ** MMT annually by 2032, aided by improved seed varieties and expansion of irrigation, which may raise average yields to 4 tonnes/ha. Per-capita wheat consumption is expected to reach 73–75 kg by 2032, driven by demand for packaged atta, biscuits, pasta and specialty flour products. The organized flour milling segment is projected to expand from ** MMT to ** MMT annual capacity by 2032 as investments in modern milling infrastructure and food-grade packaging increase. Export prospects for value-added products could rise to US$ ** billion by 2032 as India strengthens its position in biscuits, bakery mixes and ready-to-eat snacks across Africa and the Middle East. Price stability will continue to depend on government procurement, MSP adjustments and climate resilience investments, but improved supply chain efficiency and storage expansion by ** MMT under modernization programs will help mitigate volatility. Overall, India’s wheat market is positioned for stable long-term growth, anchored by structural demand and supported by evolving processing capabilities.