China Used Cooking Oil Market- Trend Analysis & Forecasts

Market/ Product Overview

The Chinese UCO market has evolved from a fragmented waste management sector into a strategically significant bioresource industry. Market revenues crossed US$ ** billion in 2024, reflecting growth from US$ ** million in 2023, and are projected to touch US$ ** billion by 2030, with momentum continuing toward 2032. China generates billions of liters of waste cooking oil annually, driven by high edible oil consumption, which exceeded ** million tonnes in 2023. This creates one of the world’s largest raw material bases for recycling and renewable energy conversion.

Urbanization and lifestyle shifts are expanding the HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants, Catering) sector, which alone contributes more than **% of national UCO generation. Alongside, household collection initiatives in major cities are formalizing what was once an informal gray market. On the demand side, biodiesel, SAF, and oleochemicals are the primary drivers. With the government’s carbon-neutrality goal for 2060, UCO recycling has been elevated to a strategic priority. The combination of ample feedstock, strong policy backing, and increasing trade significance positions China’s UCO industry at the intersection of waste management and renewable energy.

Significance of the China in Global Used Cooking Oil Supply Chain

China is the world’s largest exporter of UCO, and its trade volumes shape global biodiesel and SAF production economics. In 2024, exports reached ** million tonnes, valued at US$ ** billion. Until 2023, the United States was the largest buyer, importing around ** million tonnes, accounting for nearly **% of China’s total exports. However, in 2025, steep U.S. tariffs of 125% on Chinese UCO dramatically curtailed flows to that market.

As a result, Chinese suppliers are increasingly pivoting toward Europe and Asia. The European Union, with its binding SAF blending mandates, is expected to absorb more than half of China’s redirected exports over the coming years. Asian economies like South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia are also strengthening ties with Chinese suppliers. At the same time, domestic SAF producers have begun consuming 100,000–120,000 tons of UCO per month, signaling the beginning of a structural shift: from a predominantly export-oriented industry to one that balances global trade with rising domestic energy demand.

This dual role makes China a cornerstone in stabilizing global supply and pricing of UCO, reinforcing its strategic importance in the low-carbon energy transition.

China Used Cooking Oil Supply & Demand Trend

China’s UCO supply is underpinned by its massive edible oil consumption and urban dining culture. With over 1.4 billion people and a per-capita cooking oil consumption exceeding 25 kilograms annually, the volume of waste oil generated is unparalleled. In 2024, about ** million tonnes of UCO were exported, yet this represents only a fraction of the potential recoverable waste.

Demand is being reshaped by both international and domestic drivers. On the export front, Europe’s SAF blending mandate and Asia’s biodiesel expansion keep external demand robust. Domestically, biodiesel remains the largest and fastest-growing application segment, accounting for over **% of UCO utilization. At the same time, four major SAF plants in provinces such as Zhejiang and Shandong are collectively processing over 100,000 tonnes of UCO monthly, a figure set to rise as aviation fuel decarbonization targets tighten.

This growing local absorption of UCO will gradually reduce the exportable surplus. Monthly exports are already projected to fall by 20–40% from 2024 levels as SAF uptake accelerates. The balance between export demand and domestic SAF requirements will be the critical determinant of supply-demand equilibrium through 2032.

China Used Cooking Oil Market Growth Factors

China Used Cooking Oil Market Segmentation

The China UCO market is segmented by source and application.

By Source, food manufacturers currently dominate with revenues estimated at US$ ** million in 2024, contributing around **% of the market. HoReCa establishments followed, generating US$ ** million, buoyed by China’s dining culture and tourism revival. The household segment, though smaller at US$ ** million, is emerging as a focus area thanks to urban recycling programs. By 2035, HoReCa is projected to grow to nearly US$ ** million, while household collection could expand to US$ ** million as awareness campaigns scale.

By Application, biodiesel is the largest and fastest-growing category, contributing over **% of revenue in 2024, followed by oleochemicals at **%, animal feed at **%, and miscellaneous uses like industrial lubricants at the remainder. Biodiesel and SAF will continue to dominate growth through 2032, potentially accounting for **–**% of total demand. Oleochemicals are also expanding into consumer goods like soaps, detergents, and cosmetics, creating additional downstream value. Animal feed, though smaller, remains steady due to its role in enhancing livestock nutrition.

This segmentation highlights the dual nature of the market: food manufacturers and HoReCa generate the highest volumes, while biodiesel and SAF provide the most lucrative demand opportunities.

China Used Cooking Oil Trade (Export & Import) Trend

China’s UCO trade flows underscore its global influence. In 2022, exports were concentrated in the Netherlands, Singapore, and Spain, which together accounted for nearly **% of outbound volumes. By 2024, exports surged to ** million tonnes, worth US$ ** billion, with the U.S. accounting for nearly half of this demand.

However, trade dynamics have shifted dramatically. Following the imposition of punitive U.S. tariffs, exports to America collapsed in early 2025. Europe is expected to absorb much of the displaced volume, especially given its binding requirement to use at least 2% SAF in aviation fuel by 2025. Countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and India are also rising as key trade partners, diversifying China’s export footprint.

On imports, China remains relatively self-sufficient due to its large domestic waste generation, though niche imports from Southeast Asia occasionally supplement supply. Tariff policies, carbon standards, and certification requirements will continue to shape trade flows, making regulatory compliance a decisive factor for exporters.

Influence of the China in Global Used Cooking Oil Price

China’s central role in exports makes it a price setter in the global UCO market. When Chinese exports surged in 2024, global prices softened, falling by nearly 20% year-on-year. Conversely, when domestic SAF demand began absorbing over 100,000 tons per month, export availability declined, pushing up international spot prices.

In late 2022, oversupply combined with weak European demand led Chinese UCO prices to fall by more than **%, hitting a two-year low. Such swings demonstrate how changes in Chinese policy, collection, or export flows ripple across international markets. Looking forward, China’s pivot from the U.S. to European and Asian markets, coupled with growing domestic absorption, is expected to raise global price volatility. By 2030, with SAF demand exceeding 3 million tons annually, China’s internal consumption could create upward pressure on domestic wholesale prices, making it a bellwether for global benchmarks.

Market Competitive Landscape

Future Outlook

The outlook for China’s UCO market remains highly positive despite near-term trade disruptions. Market revenues are projected to grow from US$ ** billion in 2024 to nearly US$ ** billion by 2030, extending toward US$ ** billion by 2032 at a CAGR of around **%. Export volumes are likely to stabilize around ** million tonnes annually, as a larger share is diverted to domestic SAF consumption.

By 2030, SAF demand could exceed ** million tonnes annually, requiring nearly the entire current export surplus to meet aviation fuel needs. This structural shift will transform China from a net exporter to a balanced consumer-exporter, elevating domestic price levels. Internationally, Europe and Asia will remain top destinations for Chinese exports, while the U.S. may continue to play a reduced role due to tariff barriers.

Overall, China’s UCO market is set to transition from a waste-recycling niche into a cornerstone of the circular economy and renewable energy system. For investors and policymakers, the decade ahead offers opportunities in collection infrastructure, SAF production, trade partnerships, and technology innovation—making China a critical epicenter in the global shift to sustainable fuels.