Mexico Avocado & Products Market- Trend Analysis & Forecasts

Market/ Product Overview

The Mexican avocado market is one of the most dynamic segments in global agriculture. With an estimated production volume of 2.53 million tonnes in 2024, Mexico leads the world, supplying nearly one-third of global avocados. The market size, encompassing both fresh avocados and value-added products such as guacamole, oil, and freeze-dried slices, reached US$ ** billion in 2024. This figure is expected to exceed US$ ** billion by 2032.

Key producing states include Michoacán, which alone contributes nearly **% of the national supply, followed by Jalisco and the State of Mexico. The domestic market remains strong, with over ** thousand tonnes consumed locally in 2024, reflecting rising per capita consumption estimated at ** kg per person annually. Demand is also driven by domestic processors tapping into guacamole and oil production to meet U.S. and European demand.

The increasing popularity of avocado-based foods in North America and Europe, combined with growing interest in plant-based nutrition, has made the avocado a top-tier “superfood.” In 2024, Mexico’s avocado export value surpassed US$ ** billion, with more than ** million tonnes exported globally. This robust performance underscores the country's pivotal role in the international avocado ecosystem and its continued market momentum into the next decade.

Significance of Mexico in Global Avocado Products Supply Chain

Mexico is the undisputed linchpin of the global avocado supply chain. In 2024, it accounted for **% of the world’s avocado exports by volume and over **% by value. With favorable year-round growing conditions, Mexico is the only country capable of supplying avocados to international markets across all seasons, especially during the critical U.S. winter and Super Bowl consumption peaks.

Mexico’s dominance extends beyond fresh fruit into processed goods. In 2024, processed avocado exports, including frozen guacamole and avocado pulp, generated over US$ ** million in trade revenues. The country’s established logistics network—featuring integrated cold chains and established routes to the U.S., Canada, Japan, and Europe—ensures efficient, high-volume exports with minimal spoilage loss (typically below 4%).

Furthermore, Mexico sets critical quality and phytosanitary benchmarks. The USDA-recognized phytosanitary protocols implemented in Michoacán enable continuous access to the U.S. market, with **% of avocado exports shipped there in 2023. Additionally, Jalisco’s entry into the U.S. avocado export program in 2022 is reshaping market distribution, allowing Mexico to diversify supply origins while preserving overall volume leadership.

Mexico Avocado Products Supply & Demand Trend

Mexico’s avocado supply chain is rooted in smallholder and mid-sized orchards. In 2023, over 27,000 registered avocado farms operated across 240,000 hectares, producing a total of 2.53 million tonnes. Annual yields average 10.4 MT/ha, though advanced orchards in Michoacán report up to 13 MT/ha due to optimized irrigation and integrated pest management practices.

The domestic demand for fresh avocados remains strong, with retail and foodservice channels consuming an estimated ** thousand tonnes in 2024. However, export markets absorb the majority of production. The U.S. imported ** thousand tonnes of Mexican avocados in 2023, a 6% year-on-year increase driven by retail demand and fast-food guacamole applications. Japan and Canada followed, importing ** and ** thousand tonnes respectively.

On the processed side, global demand for frozen guacamole and avocado oil is rising steadily. Avocado oil exports grew by 9.2% in 2023, surpassing US$ ** million in value. Demand from the cosmetics and wellness industry is contributing to this growth, with avocado oil now comprising **% of Mexico’s processed avocado export revenues.

Despite increased output, climatic fluctuations—particularly droughts in Michoacán—have started to affect supply stability, with 2023 seeing a **% decline in harvest volume compared to the previous year. This tightening of supply has spurred price increases and prompted growers to adopt water-efficient technologies to meet evolving market expectations.

Mexico Avocado Products Growth Factors

Mexico Avocado Products Market Segmentation

The Mexican avocado and derivatives market can be segmented by product type, form, end-use application, and distribution channel.

By product type, fresh avocados dominate with a **% share of total market value in 2024. Hass remains the most cultivated variety, covering over **% of all avocado farms, favored for its oil content, durability, and shelf life. Other varieties such as Fuerte and Bacon are grown for niche domestic and specialty exports.

Processed products are gaining traction. In 2024, frozen guacamole accounted for US$ ** million in export value, driven by quick-service restaurants and home consumption across North America. Avocado oil, both culinary and cosmetic-grade, saw a **% annual growth, reaching over US$ ** million. Powdered and freeze-dried avocado also showed promise in nutraceuticals and meal kits, though still under **% of total market volume.

By form, the market is split into whole fruit, pulp, puree, oil, frozen, and powdered. Whole fruit remains dominant, but growth is faster in value-added segments. For example, frozen guacamole grew at 11.5% YoY in 2023, compared to 4.9% growth in whole fruit sales.

End-use segmentation shows that foodservice channels consumed **% of total exports in 2024, particularly quick-service restaurants and cafés using avocados in salads, toasts, and dips. Retail channels, especially in the U.S. and Canada, represent **% of consumption. Cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food processors using avocado oil and puree account for the remaining **%, with increasing year-on-year growth.

Distribution is led by wholesale aggregators and vertically integrated exporters such as Grupo Agricola Santa Monica and APEAM-affiliated cooperatives. Online grocery channels in North America and Europe have also begun featuring branded Mexican avocado products, enabling direct-to-consumer innovations.

Mexico Avocado Products Trade (Export & Import) Trend

Mexico remains the largest global avocado exporter, shipping over ** million tonnes in 2024, valued at US$ ** billion. The United States remains the primary destination, absorbing 84% of total exports. Canada, Japan, Spain, and the Netherlands are also key partners, collectively accounting for another **% of exports.

The USMCA provides tariff-free access for Mexican avocados, helping maintain price competitiveness in North America. In Europe, Mexican avocados face a **% import duty under MFN terms, though ongoing trade discussions aim to improve market access. Japan, a growing partner, waived import tariffs for fresh avocados in 2023 under a bilateral phytosanitary agreement.

Jalisco’s entry into the U.S. market in 2022 diversified Mexico’s export capacity and eased pressure on Michoacán. In 2023, Jalisco exported over ** tonnes, contributing nearly US$ ** million to total revenues. The state is expected to surpass ** thousand tonnes in 2025 as more orchards gain USDA certification.

Processed avocado products benefit from NAFTA legacy protections and low tariffs in most OECD markets. For example, frozen guacamole exports to the U.S. and Canada face zero tariffs, while Japan and South Korea apply between 3% and 5% tariffs, depending on the product form.

Influence of Mexico in Global Avocado Products Price

Mexico holds significant influence over global avocado prices due to its dominant export share and year-round supply capabilities. In 2024, average export prices from Mexico ranged between US$ **–** per metric ton, influenced by seasonal availability and logistical conditions. U.S. wholesale prices averaged US$ ** per pound during Super Bowl season, driven primarily by Mexican supply trends.

Historical data shows that price fluctuations often correlate directly with production outputs in Michoacán. For instance, drought conditions and labor disruptions in Q2 2023 led to a 14% price increase in U.S. wholesale markets within three weeks. Similarly, tightened phytosanitary inspections in early 2022 pushed global prices up by 10%, demonstrating Mexico’s outsized influence.

Mexico’s price-setting power is especially evident in the U.S. and Canadian markets. Due to proximity and low tariff barriers, Mexican avocados consistently underprice competitors from Chile, Peru, and Kenya by **–**%, even during high-demand periods. As Mexico accounts for over 80% of the U.S. import volume, even minor disruptions can ripple through the North American retail and foodservice supply chains.

Processed products such as guacamole and avocado oil also reflect Mexican price benchmarks. In 2023, frozen guacamole averaged US$ **/kg FOB Mexico, while culinary avocado oil reached US$ **/liter in export pricing—rates used by buyers to set procurement thresholds globally. Mexico’s ability to maintain stable pricing, despite rising input costs, continues to shape international avocado cost structures.

Market Competitive Analysis

Future Outlook

The outlook for Mexico’s avocado and derivatives market remains robust, supported by expanding global demand, continued investment, and product innovation. By 2032, the market is forecast to reach US$ ** billion, growing at a CAGR of **% from 2024 onwards. Production is projected to rise to ** million tonnes by 2032, led by increased yields in Jalisco and adoption of water-efficient and climate-resilient farming practices.

Export volumes are expected to reach ** million tonnes by 2032, with diversification into the European Union, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific markets offsetting potential saturation in the U.S. Emerging processed product categories—including avocado-based snacks, condiments, and oils—are anticipated to contribute nearly **% of export value.

However, long-term success will hinge on addressing sustainability, improving supply security, and diversifying trade exposure. Government and private sector coordination will be vital to overcoming challenges related to climate risk, land-use conflict, and market concentration. With its dominant supply base, innovation capacity, and global brand equity, Mexico is well positioned to retain its leadership role in the global avocado economy well into the next decade.